It’s that time of year again: Predictions Season. Everyone wants to hear what the experts have to say and whether their own predictions match up.

So naturally we turned to our TVREV Thought Leaders Circle members for their thoughts.

First up is Evan Shapiro whose media industry cartography at EShapTV has become legend. The Map Man is focused on M&A and he’s got some thoughts on who might be for sale and who might be buying.

M&A. I map the Media Universe every month. The force of contraction is strong in 2024.

On the sell side: Paramount, Disco Bros, Spotify, Sirius, Tegna, Gray TV, any number of gaming companies, Endeavor, AMC Entertainment, Snap, Pinterest, Vizio, Roku, and Disney. 

On the buy side: Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, TCL, Apollo, Sony and NVIDIA. Plus any number of wildcard players on both sides. 

Mike Laband, SVP, Platform Revenue, Magnite, sees The Great Rebundling as a key part of consumer’s desire for simplicity in a medium that has grown increasingly complex. 

Over the last year, streaming media companies have wholeheartedly embraced advertising as it’s clear that an ad tier is crucial to attract viewers and achieve scale in the market. This paradigm shift introduced an overwhelming number of streaming apps, presenting consumers with an array of options and decisions - perhaps too much when they want to lean back and relax.  Nielsen’s State of Play report indicates an increasing desire for simplicity, highlighting that 64% of streaming viewers want an aggregated bundle to make selecting content easier. In response to this, I believe next year we’ll see more consolidation and a resurgence of the “bundle” of years past. In addition, media companies will begin to license content to each other again as the number of apps is whittled down and more bundling options are introduced. FASTs will continue to thrive as their diverse content range effectively complements premium content apps.

Ramsey McGrory, Chief Development Officer, Mediaocean, predicts that as the shift to CTV continues, more attention will be paid to metrics, while the battle over open versus closed buying systems continues to heat up.

TV is dead! Long live TV!

2023 has been the year of TV – linear TV, CTV, online and social video.

In 2024, as the percent of TV ad inventory that is digital/CTV increases, we’re moving from a converged TV future to a converged TV present and two huge trends are colliding:

1. Innovation in measurement - We’re seeing strong competition around advanced currency and the underlying technology that enables privacy-safe and accurate measurement like identity and clean rooms. There is also tremendous fragmentation in measurement and we can expect consolidation and rationalization plays to make sense of it all.

2. Access to supply – Buyers are increasingly engaging in supply and data path optimization to get as close to the sellers as efficiently as possible. This bumps up against the sellers' desires to protect the value of their audiences and data, and their requirement to safeguard privacy. Open versus closed has been a theme for 20 years and will remain an important topic as TV evolves.

Tony Marlow, CMO at LG Ad Solutions, is looking at three big trends: the rise of shoppable TV, the pivotal role of CTV in political advertising, and the dongle’s final hurrah.

2024 is the year of Shoppable CTV:  2024 is poised to be a turning point for shoppable TV, as it becomes more mainstream than ever before. The emergence of shoppable ads in Connected TV (CTV) remains nascent but promises significant growth over the coming 12 months. These interactive ads can not only allow viewers to make purchases directly from their screens but also utilize functionality such as QR codes that link to mobile devices, further bridging the gap between TV content and e-commerce. This integration will offer viewers a frictionless shopping experience right from their TV, transforming the way advertisers and content creators engage with their audience. The use of QR codes and direct purchasing options within TV content itself is a game-changer, making the shopping experience more immediate and accessible, while also providing advertisers with valuable insights into viewer preferences and behaviors. This shift underscores the evolving landscape of advertising, where convenience and interactivity are key.

In the 2024 Presidential Election, Connected TV (CTV) will emerge as a groundbreaking new battleground for political advertising. 2024 will also mark a significant shift from traditional broadcast political advertising to more personalized, digital video platforms. With CTV's ability to target specific demographics, locations, and interests, political campaigns will leverage CTV’s addressability to tailor their messages more precisely than ever before. This strategic move not only reflects the changing landscape of media consumption but also acknowledges that younger, tech-savvy voters are more likely to be influenced through digital streaming services. Consequently, CTV advertising will play a pivotal role in shaping political narratives, offering an unprecedented level of engagement and message customization in the realm of electoral politics.

The Last Gasp of the Dongle: In 2024, Smart TVs will continue to solidify their position as the dominant TV form, largely due to their built-in CTV capabilities surpassing older dongle-based solutions for streaming. The increasing affordability and accessibility of Smart TVs have already led to 77% of US TV households owning one as of 2023. This trend is poised to accelerate as viewers more frequently update their TVs and increasingly prefer the seamless experience of using built-in streaming features. The convenience of accessing favorite streaming apps directly through the TV, without the clutter and complexity of external dongles, is a significant draw. Consequently, advertising strategies that rely on dongle-based CTV footprints may need urgent reevaluation, in light of the clear consumer shift towards native CTV functionalities in Smart TVs.

Field Garthwaite, Co-Founder and CEO, IRIS.TV, has some predictions around the growing value of context for both traditional and political advertising and why “blocklisting” just won’t work on CTV.

Right Mindset + Right Creative = Better Campaign Performance: Video-level data enables brands to better identify consumers, ensure they’re reaching the right audiences and better place ads within the context of the content they’re engaging with. Research shows that consumers pay 4X more attention to ads that are relevant to the content they are watching. AI and machine learning offer promising avenues for ad creative development and targeted messaging. However, the challenge lies in ensuring ads align with audience mindsets. As the advertising landscape evolves, reaching consumers in the right mindset becomes as critical as crafting quality creative. Misalignments can result in negative brand perceptions, impacting political campaigns as well. In fact, according to the AVCA, more than half of consumers were less interested in the brand and products found in contextually misaligned ads. For brands that are looking to better increase campaign performance in 2024, it's crucial to not only leverage video-level data but emotional and AI-driven data to deliver the right ad, in the right context and right mindset of the consumer.

Trust and Transparency Reign Supreme in Political Advertising: Trust is paramount in this election season, especially amidst the proliferation of misinformation on social media platforms. Streaming TV presents a critical medium for persuading undecided voters, reaching them with targeted messages while they engage with relevant content. Investing in content alignment is crucial. Specifically, video-level contextual targeting to reach viewers during discussions on specific topics like business, jobs, taxes, local news, finance, and weather can significantly impact undecided voters. The mastery of CTV's capabilities by political parties to reach households with precision and within the right context could define the outcome of this election. Perhaps most importantly, brands need to reconsider their use of blocklists. It is possible to only target brand safe news which is proven to be an effective medium for engaging audiences. 

Blocklisting Is Old and Dusted; AI and Video-Level Data Better Address Brand Safety: No brand wants their ad placed next to inappropriate or unsuitable content leaving a poor brand association with consumers. However, brands that continue to leverage blocklisting solutions to address brand safety are doing more harm than good. Blocklisting is outdated and causes brands to avoid inventory that is high quality, more efficient and at a lower price. Brands have been leveraging genre and channel level blocklists, thinking they’re leveraging safer inventory, to then have their ads run in TVMA comedies and horror movies. Video-level data is going to be critical for brands transitioning budgets from cable/linear into FAST and streaming. This applies to both targeting and measurement. New breakthroughs in the availability of computer vision AI data from companies like IAS make it possible to monitor FAST inventory that was previously opaque. Leveraging new technologies like the IRIS_ID to access video-level data is now the most reliable, scalable, and cheapest way to address brand safety.

Tim Hanlon, CEO and Founder at The Vertere Group, has some well-thought out prognostication around the battle for local advertising on CTV and why local TV ad sales teams may still have an advantage.

The fight for control over local advertising in streaming TV is underway.

An interesting and potentially consequential battle for how local advertising is sold and delivered in streaming TV will heighten in 2024 - something hinted at in our recent TVREV Special Report "Local TV: Perils & Promise in the Age of Streaming."  In that report, we highlighted how local TV stations and their group owners have largely treated streaming as a derivative sideshow to their lucrative, but increasingly challenged traditional linear television business model (retransmission consent fees + advertising sales).  

While standing up repeat-laden (and oddly ad-devoid?) local newscast FAST channels, and reselling third-party ad "reach extensions" in non-owned streaming properties may feel like future-ready wins, they are mere placeholders when compared to what major streaming platforms are girding for.  Though currently just a blip in ad-supported CTV sales circles, the opportunity - and capability - to serve better-targeted "top-down" advertising messages by more defined demarcations like ZIP codes, ZIP+4 clusters or even opted-in households is already attracting interest from national and regional marketers faster than local broadcasters can (less-competitively) say "DMA."  

The real jump ball, however, will be for traditional tried-and-true local advertisers who have historically looked to broadcast stations to deliver the relevant audiences they need, yet relish the potential to better "target at scale" while simultaneously eliminating waste and reducing cost. (Think: local political candidate districts or multi-location metro area restaurants). As streaming rapidly becomes the predominant method by which consumers "watch TV," the potential for advertisers to fully bypass the legacy local broadcast and spot cable TV sales infrastructure for more robust, data-friendly and precise solutions is not only real, but inevitable.  

What the big streamers lack, of course, is real on-the-ground experience with the economic issues and demographic idiosyncrasies of local markets - and they are no doubt envious of the deep and established relationships broadcasters have historically enjoyed with local advertisers and audiences alike. The question is: Can local TV ad sellers use that historically protective moat to hold back the looming encroachment from major streamers? Better, could they pivot more aggressively beyond their linear roots into more streaming-centric marketing solutions - perhaps even in partnership with the major streamers as last-mile expert local ad "concierges"? Or will these streamers simply bulldoze their way directly into local advertisers' budgets like the Googles and Metas of the world have already done?

Mike Woods, Founder and CEO, OrkaTV, has some thoughts on how the shift to CTV will continue to open up the medium to thousands of new advertisers and the positive effects that will bring about.

Since the beginning of television, advertising on TV has been what all brands aspire to. And for good reason. TV advertising delivers brand value that nothing else can. In 2024, FAST channels will finally democratize television advertising, opening the gates to millions of new advertisers. They’ll discover they can place ads on television, with simple yet powerful geographic, content, and demographic targeting. 

Straight-to-streaming ad managers such as the newly launched Orka Ads Manager will enable SMBs to buy ads on streaming TV with localized, targeted campaigns starting as low as $500. This was never possible before. It’s a game changer that will supercharge the new television. OrkaTV’s Ads Manager is available now at am.orka.tv!” 

Brandon Katz, Entertainment Industry Strategist at Parrot Analytics, looks at the growing move to a different kind of rebuilding, where rival streaming services join forces to draw in subscribers.

On top of renewed TV Everywhere efforts (Disney+ and Charter) and the consolidation of various corporate libraries into one unified super service, the industry is also now seeing the bundling of rival streamers. Ad-supported versions of Netflix and Max are being bundled with Verizon’s “myPlan” service while Apple TV+ and Paramount+ are in talks to couple up (Paramount currently partners with NBCU for international venture SkyShowtime). When combining total demand shares — which accounts for both original and licensed movies and TV series — Netflix and Max account for a whopping 32.7% of audience demand in the US in Q3. Individually, the services rank first and second, respectively.

Together, they provide an unrivaled mix of scripted and unscripted programming across TV and films as well as live sports access. A hypothetical bundle of Paramount+ and Apple TV+ would account for just 11.9% of audience demand, yet Paramount Global’s deep content library and popular sitcoms and procedurals would pair nicely with Apple’s emphasis on premium programming.

Each service would solve a pain point for the other. As the number of subscriptions the average SVOD customer pays for continues to decline, per JPMorgan, and consumers grow increasingly frustrated with the fragmentation of entertainment brought about by the digital era, bundles and cooperation between rival companies looks more and more necessary. In other words, welcome to the pay-TV model just recreated via the internet! 

Ben Ropke, VP Product at CCR Media, has some thoughts on growing pressure for greater transparency and more granular data around the FASTs in the year to come.

With the growth in FAST channel viewing and ad spend, the industry is witnessing an escalating demand for heightened transparency and granularity in the buying and measurement of FAST channels. Currently, the majority of transactions occur at the platform level, encompassing entities like Pluto, Tubi, and Samsung TV, rather than at the level of individual channels such as Cheddar News, Tastemade, or Funny or Die.

Consequently, performance metrics are reported broadly at the platform level, lacking crucial details about the audience composition delivered by each channel. This approach not only hinders an understanding of the most viewed FAST channels but also impedes insights into the audience demographics attracted by various genres of FAST channels. As the industry pivots towards contextual buying and the procurement of custom segments, the demand for granular data intensifies across the board

Ronny Lutzi, CEO at Foxxum, shared why he thinks that 2024 will be the Year of the TV Operating System worldwide.

Next year is going to be the year that everyone starts to pay attention to the operating system. We are seeing this happen now as there is a realization that the device does not matter quite as much as the operating system running on the device. One reason the industry is focusing on the operating system is that the set top box is continuing to die off. It is not popular with consumers or with MVPDs. That leaves the smart TV interface as the main way that people access their TV content. That is where the operating system becomes so important, because it affects both the consumer experience and the OEM’s ability to monetize. So we can expect to see much more focus on smart TV interfaces and their value coming from all parts of the industry.

Randy Bapst, CEO at AiBUY, says the future of CTV advertising is shoppable, a move that will bring greater accountability with it as well. 

2024 is going to be the year that shoppable content really takes off on CTV. The technology is here now and it works. Advertisers are intrigued because they’re finally getting to see the true Return On Ad Spend: Did someone buy the product, did they download the brochure, did they make an appointment at the showroom? These metrics are all trackable and measurable, which is appealing to advertisers. So is the ability to determine who is selling your product or service—you are not locked into a single vendor. That allows advertisers to once again feel like they are in charge of the full sales funnel and seek out the most favorable deals. So I think we are going to see many more brands going the shoppable route. 

Our full TVREV take will be in our annual Fearless Predictions, out, as it traditionally is, next month.

But we will share one prediction: 2024 will be the year that privacy becomes an issue for the TV industry. As in there will be a real push to both protect consumer privacy and provide greater transparency around it. 

Fortunately, we’ve got two easy ways to stay on top of what the future of data privacy will look like.

The first is this video with OG TVREVer and Qonsent founder Jesse Redniss.

The other is the webinar we will be hosting tomorrow, Tuesday, December 19th at 3pm ET.

In it, Evan Shapiro will join with co-authors Smriti Sharma (Publishers Clearing House), Daniela Molta (Syracuse University) and Tiffany Johnson (NYU) to discuss their landmark study, It’s All Personal A Study On Consumer Attitudes Towards Data Collection & Usage which has the largest sample size of any consumer study to date.

You can sign up for the one hour readout here. And don’t worry if you can’t make it—the session will be available on demand.