Hot Take On Today’s Net Neutrality Ruling

While it would be better to have the law still in place, it's unlikely to make much of a difference in the long run.

THE DANGER: While there are almost 1,000 broadband providers in the US, most of them are smaller players who compete for different audiences (business, eduction). So most markets have just two big players, sometimes only one. Meaning there is a real danger to both consumers and to internet-based businesses if both companies start taking advantage of the new ruling in a "death by 1000 cuts" sort of way--prioritizing their own content in a "fast lane", charging others to not be in a slow lane, etc.

THE REALITY CHECK: That said, having just succeeded in removing themselves from the short list of America's Most Hated Companies it seems unlikely the big broadband providers (MVPDs) would risk winding up on that list again, with all the long-term reputational damage that implies, just to make a small amount of additonal revenue. The risks are simply too great, especially in an age when it's easy for consumer backlash to build on social media and further ruin their reputation while causing massive subscriber defections.

There's an argument that consumers wouldn't notice, that broadband speeds are now so fast that even a slow speed would be largely undetectable, especially since many unthrottled broadband connections still have issues during peak times.

But they may not need to notice--just hearing that a big bad MVPD is up to no good should be enough to cause the sort of mass outrage that no amount of framing as "we're doing this to save our customers money" can change.

Throw in too that "No throttling ever" would be a great selling point for the telcos and their fixed-5G-to-the-home products, which are, admittedly, still in the early phases on being rolled out and not yet widely available. Though greater demand could speed up the rollout significantly and since we're talking AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile, these are not minnows but great big sharks in terms of competition.

Point being, I'd be surprised if any of the big broadband providers decide to ever go there, and if and when the first one does and gets slapped down as hard as I expect by the inevitable and rapid torrent of negative consumer response on social media, the rest will be loathe to follow. Especially since this is unlikely to be a culture war issue as much as a consumer one, so the heat will come at them from all sides.

THE WORST CASE SCENARIO: Zooming out some, it's worth wondering if a government with a low regard for American-style democracy🍊could put pressure on MVPDs to slow down speeds to news outlets it doesn't like? It most certainly could, but if we ever do reach that point, slower internet speeds are likely to be the least of our worries.