From First-Season Glow To Follow-Up Fade: The Hidden Dynamics Of Streaming Hits
People are reductive by nature; they want simple answers to complex questions and easily digestible strategies to solve intricate problems. Bing, bang, boom and you’re done. As such, entertainment industry observers far too frequently define success as simply making hit shows. You deliver a hit, the audience shows up, everyone leaves happy. But, to borrow an iconic line from Shrek, hit shows are like onions. They have layers.
Everyone wants to be Game of Thrones which famously grew its audience year over year, a virtually unheard of feat in the Peak TV era. But a hit show derives its value from seasonal performance and there often exists a difference in performance between new originals debuting their first seasons and returning originals delivering subsequent seasons.
Let’s take Netflix’s Bridgerton, Apple TV+’s Ted Lasso and Amazon Prime Video’s The Boys, for example. Each of these shows is an anchor series for their respective platforms that helps drive subscription growth. Yet in each instance, the shows all produced the best decay rates — or the change in demand from in-season to off-season — of their runs so far in their first seasons, according to Parrot Analytics. All three series saw US audience demand increase as the show transitioned from the in-season window (the period in which the show is releasing new episodes) to off-season (an equal amount of time following the finale) in Season 1. The newness of the title led to an elongated discovery period and catch-up viewership. In other words, first seasons of hit shows tend to sustain audience interest for longer.
In all subsequent seasons for each show, a decrease in audience demand was seen from the in-season to off-season transition. Once established as break out hit shows, engagement became more front-loaded and immediate for follow-up seasons with consumption tailing off more rapidly. Knowing this, programmers should be trying to pair returning seasons of new hit shows with premiere seasons they hope to launch well, similar to the old broadcast strategy. Returning series should also be flanked by licensed programming with consistent demand and retention value. Scheduling this way can be augmented with a grasp of consumption affinity, or what titles viewers are watching together.
For example, in the last week, viewers who watched Bridgerton were also most likely to watch The Bear, The Last Of Us, The Crown, The Acolyte, Yellowstone, Family Guy, Dark Matter, Succession, Masters of the Air and Invincible, per Parrot. Understanding the tastes and preferences of your core audience after they consume a show on your platform can help plug any potential viewership leaks to rival services. In this instance, the Bridgerton audience is showing a clear affinity for high level prestige dramas, sci-fi and animation. Providing this programming will help keep these viewers in your digital ecosystem for longer.
New and returning hit shows contribute differently to a platform’s overall success. Knowing these differences allows you to create a more balanced library that works in conjunction with one another on a title-by-title basis. Trust me, it’s a much better strategy than the “just make hits” hopes and dreams some executives are clinging to.
