Netflix's Strategic Bet: Can Greta Gerwig Breathe New Life into Narnia's Dormant Franchise?
Filmmaker Greta Gerwig took one of the most well worn genres — the coming of age tale — and made it feel fresh with the excellent Lady Bird. She remixed Little Women, one of the most adapted stories in entertainment, in exciting new ways that livened up its structure. And now she’s taken a wholly original approach to an atypical property in Barbie.
As Barbie cruises its way past $1 billion at the global box office in its bright pink C1 Chevrolet Corvette, imbuing the theatrical movie industry with some much-needed hope in the process, it’s fair to turn our attention to what comes next for Gerwig. The multi-hyphenate confirmed in a recent New Yorker profile that she’ll be tackling The Chronicle of Narnia movie adaptations for Netflix next. In doing so, Gerwig sets up an interesting challenge for herself at a time when she’s arguably the hottest director in Hollywood.
When looking at the global average and peak demand of the previous three Narnia films over the last 12 months, per Parrot Analytics, we largely see diminishing returns that suggests the franchise has not exactly been the most enduring property. This tracks with the general reception of the trilogy, which saw its IMDb ratings drop with each successive release from 2005-2010, and its box office performance, which never managed to match the highs of the original’s $720 million worldwide. Netflix is hoping Gerwig’s magical touch can re-elevate the IP from its relatively dormant status, though doing so doesn’t appear to be the easiest of paths.
Yet there are also advantages to reviving the series, as evidenced by the markets these films continue to resonate in. These include mature high average revenue user (ARPU) regions such as the US, UK, Canada and Germany and populous developing markets where Netflix is aiming to increase it marketshare while audience demand for streaming originals is on the rise, such as Brazil and India.
Now, more than ever, Netflix is operating with a global perspective that marries revenue with growth. Given the high ceiling of genre content such as fantasy, swinging for the fences with Gerwig and Narnia is a strategic bet worth placing.
