How Can MLB Fix Its Postseason TV Audience Crisis?
Major League Baseball is in a tough media spot, as previously discussed. And a World Series between the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks certainly didn’t help matters.
After game three of the 2023 World Series, the poor ratings were circulating, as expected. But those figures came in at historic lows that prompted a universal response of “how can baseball fix this steep decline?”
From Oct. 27-Nov. 1, Inscape data shows that this year’s World Series accounted for 14.92% of primetime minutes watched — though that number is actually up considerably compared to 11.27% during last year’s six-game series between the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies (Oct. 28-Nov. 5, 2022). Part of that could also be chalked up to last year’s series having two different days off, while this year’s only had one.
Even with that year-over-year uptick, MLB still finds its postseason scheduled deep into an October/early November timeframe that runs smack into the middle of college football and NFL action, and the beginning of the NBA and NHL seasons. The result is diminishing attention vs. World Series’ past. And with parity seemingly on the rise for MLB — thanks in part to big-market team struggles and part an expanded playoff field that creates further randomness outcomes — it seems unlikely that trends are reversed without adjustments.
What might those be? I’ll posit a few below, while admitting that some of them are more realistic than others.
Shrink The Playoff Field Back Down
Not going to happen, since it means more fans are intersted later, and it’s extra TV inventory (and money) for partners at ESPN, Fox and Warner Bros. Discovery. But when you have a 162-game regular season, do you really need a 12-team (and potentially 53-game) postseason to settle things?
The bloated playoff field doesn’t just needlessly increase the sample size, but increases the odds of injury, dilutes the quality of the product on the field, and is one of the biggest culprits for pushing the season into November. What happens when the Cubs and Guardians play in the World Series and there’s snow on the ground for both? Baseball’s mostly just lucked out lately that teams in the coldest cities haven’t made it as far as those in California, Florida and Texas in recent seasons.
At the very least, there could be some sort of tweak to just provide a further playoff advantage for the best regular season teams. Speaking of…
Shorten The Regular Season
Similar to the above. TV partners will be staunchly against, and every owner in baseball will likely balk at the idea of removing any home dates and the ensuing gate receipts. But… it’s worth a shot to try and make the games “matter” more and make the playoffs both end earlier and conceivably be more necessary, right?
Get Creative With How Games Are Packaged For TV
Without shortening the season, baseball needs ways to stand out as a TV product all year, as well as through the postseason. Maybe it’s alternative telecasts, AR-enabled elements or some picture-in-picture views that show side-by-side elimination games?
Engaging streaming partners could yield even more possibilities that also provide new contextual targeting opportunities for advertisers and continue a drive toward finding footing with a younger audience.
Find More Showcase Opportunities For Top Teams And Talent
Right now, there are MLB showcases that appear on MLB Network, ESPN, Fox and TBS, as well as Apple TV+, Peacock and ESPN+. But the lion’s share of baseball games still get served to a very regional audience on very regional networks (as well as MLB.tv).
Those dynamics have led to the growing regionality of baseball, and unfortunately for the league, many of its bigger-market clubs — Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, among others — are actually locked into successful RSN arrangements outside of the Diamond Sports disaster. While Sinclair tries to throw Diamond a lifeline, there’s a chance that whole ecosystem collapses. MLB controlling far more of its live-game inventory (as it currently does with the Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres) could be another way to engage streamers with spotlight games and specialized packages.
These wouldn’t solve ALL of the RSN issues, necessarily. Or the regionality problems that could persist if games head back to local broadcast. But if MLB acts as a steward to doling out its product to all partners (national and local), there’s an opportunity to make sure surprising and exciting teams (perhaps like this year’s Rangers?) get as much attention on them as possible.
Perhaps Netflix is interested? Or Apple and Amazon (currently has select Yankees games) want bigger pieces of the pie? TikTok seems like an obvious choice, too. If MLB can strike a balance to avoid overextension or use an app interface for all-in-one routing, there’s a chance you break down some of the silos and create a more comprehensive national product.
In-Season Tournament?
This goes against the earlier point about shortening the season, unless you make the games count toward the regular season records (which is what the NBA is doing). Once upon a time, MLB used to have first-half champions and they still have parts of that structure in place at the minor league level. Staging a quick, four-team event mid-season could make for a fun and entertaining showcase that you could align with the All-Star break as a larger emphasis on the talent, teams and stories of the first 80-90 games.
And, like many of these items, YOU COULD SELL THIS AS VALUABLE TV INVENTORY. Having a first-half champ doesn’t need to water down the World Series at all, either. You can use it as the fan and TV event it obviously is, but add stakes like home field advantage in round one or a game advantage in the standings to sweeten the pot.
Hell, guarantee the first-half champ a wildcard spot. Now you’re making the June and July games a LOT more compelling (since teams want to earn that spot) and creating some interesting narratives if that team falls off considerably following their “title.”
League Expansion
Commissioner Rob Manfred has already said MLB expansion to 32 teams could happen shortly after ballpark issues are resolved for the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics. With those seemingly wrapping up soon, you could add two clubs (maybe a reborn Montreal Expos and another in Portland or Nashville) and then realign the whole thing along Eastern/Western lines instead.
“Wait, I thought you wanted it to be less regional?” Sure, but the NBA and NHL manage just fine with geographically-aligned conferences, and those wind up becoming their strength as rivalries grow out of those constructs. By turning the league into four divisions of eight teams apiece, you can bolster new and old rivalries, still have every club face each other, and eliminate the now-pointless American/National League distinctions.
We’ve already seen what realignment did for the Texas teams, as the Rangers and Astros are now heated rivals after Houston joined the A.L. West. Imagine an Eastern division with the Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Pirates, Red Sox, Orioles, Nationals and Blue Jays all battling it out for regional supremacy. Or a West with ALL of the California teams.
While the NFL has done quite well with regionally-focused championships at times (the New York Giants-New England Patriots Super Bowls have been among the highest-rated ever despite their proximity), that’s something unique to the NFL.
Pitting West vs. East creates what’s likely a wider footprint for viewership and interest, and prevents the very real all-Northeast, all-California and all-Midwest World Series still in play right now.
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Ultimately, the goal here for baseball is to figure out how to keep fans (new and old) engaged through the World Series. Recent efforts haven’t done enough of that. Perhaps a shake-up — much like the successful rule changes this year — help fix that. But MLB can’t really afford to wait, as it potentially falls to third in the U.S. pro sports pecking order.
